Market outlook for 23/04/10

The domestic market today closed with marginal gains after the benchmark indices made a sharp U turn from the day's high as the profit booking takes a sharp lead across the selective indices. The sentiments turned bearish as the European markets dipped into the negative zone after a firm start to the session. Also, the high food inflation index that rose by 17.65 per cent in the year to 10th April 2010 added to the pressure. Meanwhile, after a negative start to the session triggered by weak Asian indices, the domestic market cut losses in the mid-morning trade to touch fresh intraday high on the back of the sustained buying that emerged across selective indices. Moreover, the market was further boosted by the forecast of a strong GDP growth for India for the next 2 years by International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF pegged India's GDP growth at 8.75 per cent in calendar 2010 and 8.5 per cent in calendar 2011. The key benchmark indices continued to move northwards and marked the day's high in the afternoon trade with the BSE Sensex touching intraday high of 17,778.34 and NSE Nifty touched 5,331.80. However, the market unable to sustain at that level and tumbles down due to profit booking across selective indices. The Asian markets closed in red on the back of several major U.S. firms issued disappointing profit outlooks and also on concern over the action on Greece's debt crisis. The overall market breadth was positive, as 8 out of the 13 indices ended in green. Among the sectoral indices Oil&Gas, Auto, Bankex and FMCG stocks were the major gainers
Nifty closed the day at 5269.35 up by 24.45 points. Nifty April future closed at 5265.40, discount of 3.95 points.

• FII bought in Cash (Net buy 518.30 Crore)
• FII bought in stock futures and index options but sold in index futures (Net buy 857.87 Crore)
• DII bought in Cash (Net buy 181.86 Crore)
• US market closed Flat to Negative.
• Global cues are flat to Negative.
• SGX nifty is Negative as of now.
• Most Active April Nifty Call Option: 5400 and 5300.
• Most Active March Nifty Put Options: 5200 and 5300.
• Advance Decline for the day was 612:687

NIFTY Technical

Current Spot: 5269.45
Pivot: 5274
3DEMA: 5255
7DEMA: 5263
50DEMA: 5170
RSI (7 days): 49.73
Parabolic SAR: 5349
Supports: 5216 - 5163
Resistance: 5327 - 5385

Over all view
Extremely volatile day leaving both bulls and bears whipsawed. The nifty broke the inside day range of 5279-5160 but closed within the range .Like I said yesterday markets are in a flux and directional trading will be difficult till nifty finds direction.
Daily oscillators are moving up and the half hourly oscillators have moved down from overbought region due to the sharp selloff in the last hour.
Low of 5160 is still held. This supports continuation of the upmove from 5160, however keep in mind that today's action could be the forming of the right shoulder in the bearish head and shoulder pattern with the green neck line. The bearish rising wedge forming supports the view that the right shoulder may indeed be forming.
Support on the lower trendline of the rising wedge at 5245-5268 and on the neckline at 5157. Resistance is at 5332-5344 as shown on the daily charts.

Target Nifty
Buy Nifty above 5279 - 5330 - 5397 - 5454 SL - 5272
Sell Nifty below 5258 - 5210 - 5153 - 5086 SL - 5277

Stock Ideas for the Day
Reliance Industries: Buy above 1078 for targets of 1094, 1114, 1138 SL of 1071
Reliance Industries: Sell below 1068 for targets of 1055, 1032, 1011 SL of 1076
JBF Industries Ltd.: Buy above 161 for targets of 165, 170 SL of 155.5
Sasken: Buy above 192 for targets of 198, 205 SL of 188

Positional Call
Gabriel: Buy above 50.5 for target of 56 SL 48.5 (One Month)
UCO Bank: Buy above 64 for target of 67 SL 63 (One Week)

Use strict STOP LOSS in each and every trade in this kind of volatile market and Trade at your own risk.

Thanks and Regards

S&P Wealth Creators

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