Weekly Outlook Indian Stock Market (05 Mar – 09 April)

WEEKLY TECHNICALS
High: 5329.55
Low: 5235.15
Close: 5290.50
Change: +8.50
RSI (14 Days): 61.99
Pivot: 5285
Support: 5241, 5191
Resistance: 5335, 5379

TECHNICAL CUES

• On April 1st Nifty future (near month) closed with the premium of 16.3 points at 5,307.8
• On the last day of the week, the Put-Call ratio reached at 1.19 times.
• Average Cost of Carry for the week decreased to 2.96%.
• India VIX (Volatility Index) is at 17.62%, a decrease of 27 basis points from previous week.
• FIIs turned out to be net buyer in the last 5 trading days.

OPTION CUES

During this week, most of the open interest accretion witnessed in the range of 5,200 to 5,300 put, while, on the flip side, highest open interest was build up in the range of 5,300 to 5,400 Calls. The 5400 and 5500 strike calls added 7.14 lakh shares and 3.86 lakh shares in OI respectively and on the put front 5200 and 5300 strike puts witnessed Addition of 8.59 lakh shares in OI on Thursday indicating writing at these levels.

OVERALL VIEW
Nifty is likely to move in a range
Nifty commenced the last week on a positive note and moved higher to test its resistance at 5,300 levels. However, it corrected later in the week until the 5,240 support level but rebounded to end the week above the 5,290 mark. From here, Nifty is likely to correct, as the momentum indicators are in the profit booking phase, but as there is a strong support for Nifty at 5,200 levels which can restrict it from falling further and a strong resistance at 5,300 levels which can restrict its further upward move, Nifty can witness a range bound movement in the coming week. It seems that Nifty will correct by the way of consolidating and will spend some more time in this range, before making a move in either direction. Upside, if it breaches 5,300 mark decisively, it can move further upwards to test 5,400 level. Downside, 5,200 is the immediate major support and if this level is breached, Nifty can move further downwards until 5,100 level. Global markets will remain the key factor in deciding the trend for Indian markets.

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